CAFE Norms — OEM Tool — ForeSee Advisors
CAFE Norms — OEM Tool
Corporate Average Fuel Economy · CAFE I/II/III
Live model Currency: ₹ (INR)
CAFE Norms · Automobile OEMs

From fleet target to compliance position—at a single OEM glance.

A focused tool for automobile OEMs and policy teams. Computes effective fleet CO₂ emission against the prevailing CAFE target, applies super-credit multipliers for BEV / PHEV / HEV, and surfaces compliance status, surplus / deficit credits, penalty exposure under CAFE III pricing, and the EV-mix lever needed to close any gap.

Section 01 · Fleet Compliance Calculation

CAFE Compliance & Super-Credits

CAFE Norms regulate Corporate Average Fuel Economy of passenger vehicle OEMs. Super-credit multipliers for low-emission powertrains let an OEM count one BEV as 3 vehicles, one PHEV as 2.5, and one HEV as 2. The calculation: Effective fleet CO₂ = Σ(volume × CO₂ ÷ multiplier) ÷ Σ(volume × multiplier). CAFE credits are tradable within the framework but separate from CCTS market.

CAFE I/II/III · OEM
Fleet Composition & Targets
Volumes · Real-world CO₂ · Multipliers
·

ICE Powertrain

units/yr
g/km
·

BEV (Battery EV)

units/yr
g/km
×
·

PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid)

units/yr
g/km
×
·

HEV (Hybrid)

units/yr
g/km
×
Total Fleet Volume
0
units/yr
— ICE · — EV mix
Raw Fleet CO₂
0
g/km · pre-multipliers
— vs target
Effective Fleet CO₂
0
g/km · with multipliers
— vs target
Compliance Status
—
—
Awaiting
Surplus / Deficit
0
g/km from target
—
Super-Credit Uplift
0
g/km benefit
— of raw
Compliance Build-up: Raw → Effective → Target
Stacked view showing how super-credits move the fleet
—
01.1

Powertrain Contribution Analysis

CO₂ Contribution by Powertrain
Weighted contribution to effective fleet number
—
Volume Mix vs CAFE-Weighted Mix
How super-credits restructure the fleet for compliance
—
Section 02 · Strategic Levers

EV-Mix Strategy

If the OEM is non-compliant, what mix of low-emission vehicles closes the gap? This panel runs sensitivity scans on BEV share, PHEV share, and ICE CO₂ improvement — showing the minimum lever required to reach target.

What-If · Levers
BEV Share vs Compliance Position
Sweep BEV % of total fleet · all else equal
Tipping point: Approximately —% BEV mix is required to bring the fleet under target, holding all other variables constant.
ICE Improvement vs Compliance
If you cut ICE CO₂ instead of adding EVs
ICE alternative: ICE fleet would need to drop to — g/km to meet target without changing electric mix.
02.1

Combined Sensitivity — BEV Share × ICE CO₂

Compliance Heat-map
Effective fleet CO₂ across BEV share (rows) × ICE CO₂ (cols). Green = compliant, amber = borderline, red = non-compliant.
Reading the map: Each cell shows effective fleet CO₂ at that combination. Cells at or below the CAFE target are compliant — find the cheapest path (smallest BEV share × ICE improvement combination) that lands on a green cell.
02.2

5-Year Trajectory

Fleet CO₂ Path vs CAFE II / III Targets
Projected based on linear EV-mix growth · adjustable
% pts/yr
g/km/yr
%
—
Section 03 · Financial Exposure

Penalty Exposure (CAFE III)

Under the proposed CAFE III framework, non-compliance carries credit prices ranging from ₹2,500/g/km in FY28 escalating to ₹4,500/g/km by FY32. This panel quantifies penalty exposure for the current fleet as well as scenarios where surplus credits are sold within the framework.

CAFE III Pricing · Apr 2025
Penalty / Credit Pricing
Per the CAFE III proposal · per unit fleet shortfall
₹/g/km
₹/g/km
₹/g/km
₹/g/km
₹/g/km
How penalty applies: If your effective fleet CO₂ is, e.g., 5 g/km above the CAFE target, and your annual sales volume is 1 million, exposure ≈ 5 × 1,000,000 × ₹3,000 = ₹150 Cr. Surplus credits can equally be monetized at the same rate.
Position vs Target
—
—
Per-Unit Exposure
₹0
at FY30 mid-rate
Per vehicle sold
Annual Exposure (FY30)
₹0
at current gap
Penalty or revenue
Annual Penalty / Revenue · FY28-FY32
At escalating CAFE III credit prices
—
5-Year Cumulative Exposure
Total penalty (or revenue) FY28→FY32 if gap stays constant
—
03.1

Gap Sensitivity

Annual FY30 Exposure vs Compliance Gap
How exposure scales with each g/km of shortfall
Per g/km cost: At current annual volume of —, every 1 g/km of shortfall represents — in annual exposure at the FY30 rate. Closing the gap is the single biggest financial lever for CAFE III readiness.